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Mathematical program for predicting the risk for progression of atrial fibrillation and its possible complications in patients with hypertension and concomitant extracardiac diseases

DOI: https://doi.org/10.29296/25877305-2022-08-06

Professor L. Khidirova(1), MD; Z. Osmieva(1); V. Lukinov(2)
1-Novosibirsk State Medical University, Mnstry of Health of Russia
2-Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk

Objective. To elaborate a personalized algorithm for predicting the progression of atrial fibrillation (AF) and the development of its complications in essential hypertension concurrent with extracardiac diseases. Subjects and methods. An observational cohort study involved 308 males aged 45–60 years with AF and hypertension concurrent with extracardiac diseases: diabetes mellitus (n=40), diffuse toxic goiter (n=42); hypothyroidism (HT; n=59), abdominal obesity (n=64), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (n=47). A comparison group consisted of 56 patients without extracardiac disease. The study assessed clinical, laboratory, and anthropometric data and 24-hour ECG monitoring and echocardiography readings. All statistical calculations were performed using the Rstudio program (USA). Results. Significant predictors of AF progression have been established, which include remodeling indicators: a 1-ng/l elevation of galectin-3 increases the risk of AF progression by 1.003 times (p=0.016); a 1-cm left atrial (LA) enlargement does by 2.67 times (p

atrial fibrillation
personalized assessment.

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