Prediction and assessment of somatic risk factors affecting the course of pregnancy

DOI: https://doi.org/10.29296/25877305-2020-08-06
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Issue: 
8
Year: 
2020

B. Rimskaya(1); I. Chudinov(1, 3); V. Samokhin(1, 2); M. Murashko(1); Professor T.
Vasilieva(4), MD; M. Vasiliev(4), Candidate of Medical Sciences; A. Melerzanov(4), Candidate of Medical
Sciences (1)Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Dolgoprudny (2)Institute for Information
Transmission Problems RAS (Kharkevich Institute), Moscow (3)Center for Theoretical Problems of
Physicochemical Pharmacology RAS, Moscow (4)N.A. Semashko National Research Institute of Public Health,
Moscow

An important public health goal is to increase the number of successful births and to carry out a systemic approach aimed at reducing risk factors for pregnant women and women who have already given birth. This work is aimed at building a statistical model for assessing and forecasting risk factors for the following 5 years. By applying the linear regression method and time series analysis methods the presence of trends in the dynamics of the disease was determined with a high level of significance, the forecast with confidence intervals was built for the disorders such as varicose veins, diseases of the urinary system and respiratory system, as well as complications associated directly with an increased body mass index were considered. The obtained data has shown the need for the development of a monitoring system that will take into account the positive growth dynamics of mentioned risk factors.
Keywords: 
demography
pregnancy
obstetrics
risk factors
forecasting

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