The Journal is included in Russian and International Library and Abstract Databases
Russain Science Index (Russia)
EBSCO
DOI Registration Agency (USA)

Prediction and assessment of somatic risk factors affecting the course of pregnancy

DOI: https://doi.org/10.29296/25877305-2020-08-06
Issue: 
8
Year: 
2020

B. Rimskaya(1); I. Chudinov(1, 3); V. Samokhin(1, 2); M. Murashko(1); Professor T.
Vasilieva(4), MD; M. Vasiliev(4), Candidate of Medical Sciences; A. Melerzanov(4), Candidate of Medical
Sciences (1)Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Dolgoprudny (2)Institute for Information
Transmission Problems RAS (Kharkevich Institute), Moscow (3)Center for Theoretical Problems of
Physicochemical Pharmacology RAS, Moscow (4)N.A. Semashko National Research Institute of Public Health,
Moscow

An important public health goal is to increase the number of successful births and to carry out a systemic approach aimed at reducing risk factors for pregnant women and women who have already given birth. This work is aimed at building a statistical model for assessing and forecasting risk factors for the following 5 years. By applying the linear regression method and time series analysis methods the presence of trends in the dynamics of the disease was determined with a high level of significance, the forecast with confidence intervals was built for the disorders such as varicose veins, diseases of the urinary system and respiratory system, as well as complications associated directly with an increased body mass index were considered. The obtained data has shown the need for the development of a monitoring system that will take into account the positive growth dynamics of mentioned risk factors.

Keywords: 
demography
pregnancy
obstetrics
risk factors
forecasting



References: 
  1. Hvylja-Olinter N.A. Demograficheskoe sostojanie sovremennoj Rossii. Sotsium i vlast'. 2015; 4 (54): 15–23 [Shvilia-Olinter N.A. The demographic situation in Russia. Sotsium i vlast’. 2015; 4 (54): 15–23 (in Russ.)].
  2. Rimashevskaja N.M. i dr. Demograficheskij perehod – spetsifika rossijskoj modeli. Narodonaselenie. 2012; 1 (55): 23–31 [Rimashevskaya N.M. et al. Demographic transition – specific character of the russian model. Narodonaselenie. 2012; 1 (55): 23–31 (in Russ.)].
  3. Shehtman M.M., Elohina T.B. Nekotorye metody prognozirovanija pozdnego toksikoza u beremennyh. Akusherstvo i ginekologija. 1996; 3: 3–6 [Shekhtman M.M., Elokhina T.B. Nekotorye metody prognozirovaniya pozdnego toksikoza u beremennykh. Akusherstvo i ginekologiya. 1996; 3: 3–6 (in Russ.)].
  4. Marshalov D.V., Salov I.A. Prognoz i profilaktika massivnoj akusherskoj krovopoteri. Mat' i ditja: Mat-ly VII ross. foruma. M., 2005; s. 675–6 [Marshalov D.V., Salov I.A. Prognoz i profilaktika massivnoi akusherskoi krovopoteri. Mat’ i ditya: Mat-ly VII ross. foruma. M., 2005; s. 675–6 (in Russ.)].
  5. Alkema L. et al. Global, regional, and national levels and trends in maternal mortality between 1990 and 2015, with scenario-based projections to 2030: a systematic analysis by the UN Maternal Mortality Estimation Inter-Agency Group. Lancet. 2016; 387 (10017): 462–74. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)00838-7
  6. Main E.K., Menard M.K. Maternal mortality: time for national action. Obstet Gynecol. 2013; 122 (4): 735–6. DOI: 10.1097/AOG.0b013e3182a7dc8c
  7. Sidorova I.S. i dr. Sostojanie materinskoj smertnosti ot preeklampsii i eklampsii v Rossijskoj Federatsii v 2014 g. Chto menjaetsja v protsesse analiza? Rossijskij vestnik akushera-ginekologa. 2015; 15 (6): 4–11 [Sidorova I.S. et al. Maternal mortality from preeclampsia and eclampsia in the Russian Federation in 2014. What changes during an analysis? Russian Bulletin of Obstetrician-Gynecologist = Rossiyskiy vestnik akushera-ginekologa. 2015; 15 (6): 4–11 (in Russ.)]. https://doi.org/10.17116/rosakush20151564-11
  8. Skripnichenko Ju.P., Baranov I.I., Tokova Z.Z. Statistika prezhdevremennyh rodov. Problemy reproduktsii. 2014; 4: 11–4 [Skripnichenko Iu.P., Baranov I.I., Tokova Z.Z. Statistics of the preterm births. Russian Journal of Human Reproduction = Problemy reproduktsii. 2014; 4: 11–4 (in Russ.)].
  9. Mann H.B. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society. 1945; 13 (3): 245–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1907187
  10. Kendall M. Rank correlation methods. 4th edn. London: Charles Griffin, 1975.
  11. Holt C.C. Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages. Int J Forecasting. 2004; 20 (1): 5–10.
  12. Guelinckx I. et al. Maternal obesity: pregnancy complications, gestational weight gain and nutrition. Obes Rev. 2008; 9 (2): 140–50. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-789X.2007.00464.x
  13. Kotenko R.M. Metabolicheskie narushenija i ih korrektsija u beremennyh s izbytochnym vesom i ozhireniem. AG-Info (zhurnal rossijskoj assotsiatsii akusherov-ginekologov). 2011; 1: 26–31 [Kotenko R.M. Metabolicheskie narusheniya i ikh korrektsiya u beremennykh s izbytochnym vesom i ozhireniem. AG-Info (zhurnal rossiiskoi assotsiatsii akusherov-ginekologov). 2011; 1: 26–31 (in Russ.)].
  14. Duda V.I., Drazhina O.G. Akusherstvo. M.: Oniks, 2007 [Duda V.I., Drazhina O.G. Akusherstvo. M.: Oniks, 2007 (in Russ.)].
  15. Tan E.K., Tan E.L. Alterations in physiology and anatomy during pregnancy. Best Pract Res Clin Obstet Gynaecol. 2013; 27 (6): 791–802. DOI: 10.1016/j.bpobgyn.2013.08.001
  16. Skripnichenko Ju.P., Baranov I.I., Tokova Z.Z. Statistika prezhdevremennyh rodov. Problemy reproduktsii. 2014; 4: 11–4 [Skripnichenko Iu.P., Baranov I.I., Tokova Z.Z. Statistics of the preterm births. Russian Journal of Human Reproduction = Problemy reproduktsii. 2014; 4: 11–4 (in Russ.)].
  17. Mehta N. et al. Respiratory disease in pregnancy. Best Pract Res Clin Obstet Gynaecol. 2015; 29 (5): 598–611. DOI: 10.1016/j.bpobgyn.2015.04.005
  18. Novikov B.N. Varikoznaja bolezn' nizhnih konechnostej i beremennost'. RMZh. 2011; 19 (1): 18–21 [Novikov B.N. Varikoznaya bolezn’ nizhnikh konechnostei i beremennost’. RMZh. 2011; 19 (1): 18–21 (in Russ.)].
  19. Bamigboye A.A., Smyth R.M.D. Interventions for varicose veins and leg oedema in pregnancy. Cochrane Database Syst. Rev. 2007; 1: CD001066. DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD001066.pub2
  20. Leonova E., Chanturija A., Vismont F. Patofiziologija sistemy krovi. Litres, 2017 [Leonova E., Chanturiya A., Vismont F. Patofiziologiya sistemy krovi. Litres, 2017 (in Russ.)].